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Friday, January 16, 2009

How Secure Are Indian Nukes?

By Adnan GillLos Angeles, CA
India already enjoys the dubious distinction of running the most unsafe nuclear program, now it can hold the crown for running the most insecure one too. The Indian nuclear program has become a serious threat to world security. By and large, the security threats posed to its nuclear reactors stem from within. It is a ticking time bomb waiting to be tripped by the numerous insurgencies and separatist movements plaguing India, or by natural disasters. Well over half of India is virtually controlled by insurgent groups, like the Naxalites, where the government’s control is minimal to non-existent. Other security threats emanate from the Indians choosing to construct their nuclear facilities on coastlines prone to natural disasters like the monstrous tsunami of 2004.
India is afflicted with countless insurgencies. Over 53 per cent of its geographical territory is under the control of insurgents and separatists. A debilitating insurgency in the Indian-controlled-Kashmir is still carried strong by groups like All-Parties Hurriyat Conference. The Sikh Khalistani movement seeks to create an independent Sikh State out of India's breadbasket state of Punjab. Northeastern India is bled by at least 50 separatist movements, out of which, the most prominent and oldest one is the Naga militant group/National Socialist Council of Nagalim. However, the most serious threat to Indian national security is posed by the leftist Naxalite separatists. Prime minister Manmohan Singh described this Maoist insurgency as "the single biggest internal security challenge ever faced by our country".
Once dismissed as little more than an irritant, the Maoist movement is gaining ground in India. The Naxalites are fighting the Indian government in states like Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala, Uttaranchal, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh. Over 45 per cent or two-fifth of Indian territory is now under Naxalite influence which extends to 15 States, affecting 509 police stations. Currently, as few as 25 battalions of military and central paramilitary forces are fighting the armed Naxalites who have a presence in 220 districts and are in absolute control of over 160 districts, and spreading wide and far. They have over 55,000 well-trained, well-armed and highly motivated cadres, hi-tech weapons in plenty and a well-honed fighting strategy. Indian intelligence agencies believe that Maoists of India and Nepal have also begun joint operations. Sri Lanka's LTTE and French Maoists are providing full support to the Indian and Nepalese Maoists. In return, the Indian Maoists provide shelter and training camps to Nepal's Maoists.
A day after the British police said they foiled a major plot to attack transatlantic airliners, and exactly a month after Mumbai, India's commercial hub, was hit by a series of bomb blasts, the US embassy in India warned American citizens of possible attacks in or around New Delhi and Mumbai. The US embassy spokesman warned, "Likely targets include major airports, key central Indian government offices, and major gathering places such as hotels and markets." Judging from the September 8, 2006, horrible bomb blast in Malegaon (Maharashtra), which claimed at least 37 victims, it would be safe to assume that the warnings issued by the US embassy were based on credible information. Even though the public warnings issued by the Americans did not include direct threats to the Indian nuclear facilities, still the Indian government deployed 38 elite commandos at its Kalpakkam fast breeder reactor in the southern state of Tamil Nadu. At the same time, the Press Trust of India reported additional commando deployments at other nuclear facilities. It reported, “The armed forces were given the responsibility of securing [nuclear] facilities and NSG commandoes were deployed at many nuclear plants.”
Few details are available regarding the security standards in place for the Indian nuclear program, but they are believed to be primitive and outdated at best. Depending on the sensitivity of materials, it is generally believed that different levels of security are in place, including fencing and sentries. Physical barriers are installed at nuclear facilities in an effort to deny access to the sensitive areas, and access control is maintained over personnel by visually verifying paper laminated identity cards.
Security experts believe a well-conceived attack on Indian nuclear assets by any number of highly-motivated insurgents and/or their sympathizers can potentially materialize in any of the following scenarios:
Scenario # 1: The insurgents steal an intact nuclear weapon from Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) and detonate it in the middle of Mumbai. Though highly improbable, of all the separatist threats facing India, perhaps the gravest is the possibility of militants obtaining a fully assembled nuclear weapon and detonating it in a metropolitan. Insurgents could potentially acquire nuclear weapons through one of two plausible ways. They could steal an intact nuclear weapon from existing arsenals, or they could buy a stolen weapon. If an Indian separatist group exploded just one nuclear weapon in a major metropolitan, hundreds of thousands of Indians could die and millions will be seriously injured.
Scenario # 2: The insurgents fashion a crude nuclear weapon by stealing fissile material from the Kalpakkam Atomic Reprocessing Plant (KARP) and explode it in Chennai. In November/December 2004, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reported that India possesses 300-470 kilograms of plutonium, enough to produce up to 120 nuclear weapons, and a reasonable amount of highly enriched uranium (HEU). According to the report by David Albright and Kimberly Kramer titled ‘Stockpiles still growing’, “India may now be producing HEU in significant quantities at a gas centrifuge plant it has been working on for many years.”
Since only a relatively small amount of HEU or plutonium is needed to build a bomb, separatists could potentially steal enough material to build one or more nuclear weapons. A crude nuclear weapon would need 40-50 kilograms of HEU. However, a more sophisticated design would use approximately 12 kilograms of HEU or 4 kilograms of plutonium. The theft of HEU from uranium enrichment plants like the ones at Trombay and Mysore would be especially worrisome, because it is relatively straightforward to make a bomb using this material. The insurgents could acquire enough fissile material to build a nuclear weapon and the expertise to construct a workable bomb.
Scenario # 3: The insurgent sympathizers smuggle highly radioactive material out of the Nuclear Fuel Complex to detonate a radiological dispersion device or ‘dirty bomb’ in Hyderabad. In an example of security blunder that could have resulted in the theft of fissile material, in August 2006, security was tightened in and around the Narora nuclear power plant after three men working there were arrested for giving fake addresses at the time of their appointments. Unbelievably, the men were given access to the facilities without first conducting thorough background checks.The problem is that India does not only have 22 declared -- including under construction -- nuclear reactors, but it also has about 60 -- less secure -- agencies connected with nuclear activities. India is well known for lax security and overworked systems; security experts believe smuggling of radioactive materials to be highly probable.
Scenario # 4: Naxalites sabotage KARP facilities to cause large release of radiation in Chennai. Security experts think the nature of specific threats to Indian nuclear facilities may include an attack with explosive laden trucks driven through the security parameters to be exploded next to the nuclear reactors or next to the turbines spun by highly radioactive steam. In the past, such tactics had been employed with marginal success by the Iraqi insurgents who breached the Green Zone (Baghdad) security wall by exploding a truck next to the wall. A second truck drove through the hole in the wall and exploded inside the Green Zone by the second suicide bomber. India is no stranger to suicide bombings. In the first recorded instance of suicide bombing in South Asia, ex-Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated by a Tamil suicide bomber.


Insurgents may even employ other innovative tactics like mounting an aerial attack using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) or an aircraft in a suicide mission. Naxalites are believed to be armed with short- and long-range rockets. An attack on the nuclear facilities with rockets is also a realistic possibility to cause panic and facilitate breaching of security parameters. The consequences of such attacks could include release of radioactive matter such as contaminated heavy water, pressurized radioactive steam, uranium dust clouds, iodine or cesium, and the associated fires and explosions could cause catastrophic structural failures. In fact, the Indian nuclear program has a history of structural failures. For example, in 1994, owing to faulty design, the concrete containment dome of the Kakrapar Atomic Power Station (KAPS) collapsed.
Scenario # 5: The most realistic scenario. In the aftermath of a massive tsunami, insurgents effortlessly get their hands on unguarded nuclear weapons stored at the unsecured military bases, and fissile materials from the KARP, BARC and/or Tarapur Atomic Power Stations and disperse these weapons and fissile materials all over India. They also sell the loot and stage multiple nuclear attacks. The December 26, 2004 tsunami devastated the coastal stretches of Tamil Nadu. The unimaginable force of the tsunami literally uprooted or flattened every security boundary that was supposed to protect the peripheries of the 500MW prototype fast breeder reactor coming up at Kalpakkam. The security personnel at the facilities were either killed or fled, virtually leaving the nuclear reactor insecure and unguarded for days to come.
In March 2006, the under construction 1,000 MW Koodankulam nuclear power plants were rocked by earthquake tremors. The tremors were strong enough to create severe panic and fear among the local population about the safety and security of the nuclear power project. According to a statement released by the People's Movement Against Nuclear Energy and the South Asian Community Center for Education and Research, "The quake, very close to the Koodankulam reactor site, raises urgent and important questions about the safety of the plants and the security and well-being of the people in Kanyakumari and other southern districts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala". The statement further addressed the slack attitude of Indian authorities towards the safety and security of its nuclear plants: "The local people's concerns about the impact of these plants on their safety, health, livelihoods and well-being have all been simply dismissed so far." Arguably, their fears are not unfounded. It’s not if, but when someone will take advantage of a natural disaster by stealing the fissile materials and/or nuclear weapons from the Indian facilities.
Unfortunately, that’s not where Indian nightmare scenarios will end. In its mad pursuit to become a mini-nuclear power, India is going to ridiculous lengths to amass nuclear technologies in an amateurish hope to enhance its ability to generate additional fissile materials for its nuclear stockpiles. In an example of ultimate irresponsible and reckless behavior, the Indians have tried to negotiate with the Russians to build nuclear reactors even in the open seas. On November 19, 2003, the Indian news daily, The Hindu, reported a conversation between the Indian national security adviser Brajesh Mishra and the Russian atomic energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev on a Russian offer of floating nuclear plants in international waters off the Indian shores, because then, the ownership of the plants can remain with the supplier. How India and Russia planed to protect the floating nuclear power plants in open seas against hurricanes, accidental collisions, terrorist attacks, aerial or underwater attacks, or sabotage is anybody’s guess.
As a member of the Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials and under UN Resolution 1540, India is required to establish the highest standards of security for its fissile materials. Sadly, so far, the security standards at Indian nuclear facilities are believed to be rudimentary and primitive at best. The Indian nuclear program is fast becoming a serious threat to world security. Rising radioactive plumes from the sabotaged Indian facilities or nuclear explosions will certainly poison the food and water supplies in the Subcontinent. Depending on the time of the year, the radioactive dust from India can be carried by the prevailing upper atmosphere winds all the way to Western Europe and even to the United States!

9 comments:

No doubt after reading the first para, I could find where it must have originated from and did spend any more tm with your misinforming blog. For others, who read you and happen to stumble on this comment, I would like to tell that India is a very responsible country and strong enough for controlling its nuke infrastructure. Insurgencies and all the shit you talked about exists in the jungles and few far flung villages, especially our borders with China and Pakistan. Having lived in the northern, central and southern parts of India, I have no doubt that the Indian soil is not under the control of some so called 'jihadis'. If you have to write about India, please visit us or have a fair re search about us before attempting to do so. Probably, this sick hatred of yours is the reason why you guys are lagging in the aspects of development but are the world leaders in terror.

India is currently highly instable country with one of the top countries with racist attack especially due to recent Hindu fundamentalists who are killing, raping and mass murdering and burning every one who don’t want to convert into Hinduism

They have active support form Indian army and RAW whose officers are involved in training and execution of terrorists attacks against Sumjota express and thousand of Muslims and Christians in India. These elements in Indian army and RAW can very well support actively support attacks on Indian nuclear facilities to get nuclear terror attacks against neighboring countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan against whom threats of terror attacks have already been made by these Hindu fundamentalists or they can use these mass murders in Indian states where Hindu fundamentalists government actively support killings of minorities.

Mumbai attacks have already exposed the inability of elite Indian commandos to effectively handle such a situation

Secondly Indian don’t have very fool proof system in place to prevent incidents like that happened few years ago where Indian diagrams (blueprints depicted the inner workings of a centrifuge) were available for a nominal bidding fee, said David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector. He said he acquired the drawings to prove a point. "We got them for about $10," said Albright, who called the incident a "serious leak of sensitive nuclear information."

Therefore indian nuclear weapons can very well be targets both for Hindu and Muslim fundamentalists and Indian government and world community needs to work hard to avoid any such accident

Dear Adnan Gill,
Is this a dream, fiction or thought process?
You are 95 % wrong on this! You thinking appears to translate( and correlate to India) what the world press is writing about Pakistan. All these insurgents/militants you are talking about are in minuscule proportions in India. Is there any area in India like NWFP or SWAT where the writ of government does not run!! Pakistan is one of those countries in the world, where the large areas are un-governable like in Ethiopia or Sudan.
The Khalistani, Naga, Mizo issues that you talk about is all HISTORY. The new maoist & other naxaliites insurgents are more of a social nature in poorer remote districts of poor states. These groups have local causes and they never challenge the Indian state. India is a very large geographic area unlike Pakistan where a sneeze in NWFP reaches Islamabad in minutes being 200 KM away. Moreover, states in India are governed by strong state governments and they handle these issues. THE WORLD AND NEW PRESIDENT OF USA HAVE DECLARED PAKISTAN AS THE EPICENTER OF TERRORISM. WHY? BECAUSE PAKISTAN IS HIGHLY UNSTABLE, DECIETFULL( like army/ISI on one hand helping NATO on the border and on the other hand helping/encouraging jihadis),HISTORY OF MILITARY COUPS,VENOMEOUS MADARSAS ETC. ETC. If the probability of Pak nukes being captured by militants is 60/70 % that for India would be 5/6 %. You talk about Hindu Fundamentalists converting people. Out of more than 200 million non-Hindus, how many have they converted or raped? This is all bull spread by Pak media. Do not forget Pak army killed or raped the biggest numbers after world war II, before 1971 in Bangladesh. And that too their own Muslim sisters! Samjhauta blast was handiwork of a disgruntled army officer and had nothing to do with army or RAW. And this officer is being tried in a civil court. Indian RAW reports to the civilian bosses. What about ISI? They partially report to jihadis!
So my dear, stop day-dreaming and stay in the real world!

You have said stop day-dreaming and stay in the real world
any relations of your facts and figure like 95% 60% 70% 5% 6% to the reality?? There is non you are self contradicting
From you post it doesn’t look that you are trying defend india but rather trying to blame Pakistan
Then we know this typical response by Indians and Pakistanis once any matter is discussed about their foe

As far your questions answer to all of them are already there if you care to look up

Hi Adnan,
I do not want to get in to an argument over this. Some of the articles and editorials in Pak media do subscribe to my views and I just want to quote one paragraph from Daily Times Jan 29 editorial ( http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\01\29\story_29-1-2009_pg3_1)
"But the world doesn’t see Pakistan as General Musharraf does. Pakistan is a fast-failing state manifesting patterns of activity less characteristic of South Asia and more patterned on Afghanistan and Somalia, leveraged by a disputed concept of sharia. It radiates threats to South Asia as well as to Central Asia and Iran. More dangerously, unlike the rest of South Asia, it has “ungoverned spaces” on is sovereign territory where non-state actors and foreigners are setting up their own mini-states complete with taxing authority and “quick justice” courts dictated by warlords. Foreign and local terrorists trained in Pakistan have struck in the United States and Europe and India, and can do it again unless eliminated. It is unrealistic to make reference to the “root causes” only when the revisionist state is spinning out of internal control and its elites are unwilling or unable to rise to the occasion themselves."
THIS IS THE REALITY I WAS REFERRING TO AND THE 5 SCENARIOS ON NUCLEAR SAFETY OF INDIAN NUKES DO NOT APPLY TO INDIA AS THEY DO TO PAKISTAN.

You did not answer you super sources for figure like 95% 60% 70% 5% 6%??
You did not answer the part about “Indian diagrams (blueprints depicted the inner workings of a centrifuge) were available for a nominal bidding fee, said David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector. He said he acquired the drawings to prove a point. "We got them for about $10," said Albright, who called the incident a "serious leak of sensitive nuclear information."

You did not answer the Indian army and RAW whose officers involvement in training and execution of terrorists attacks against Sumjota express and thousands of Muslims and Christians in India. And now those terrorist being released under the pressure of Hindu fundamentalists.

You did not answered any fact in the article


Even if far sake of argument I agree with your dreams still I cannot figure it out that just by blaming how India gets out of the situation . Again from you post it doesn’t look that you are trying defend India but rather trying to blame Pakistan.

My dear friend, if i may join this argument i guess the blog editor shld look at the situation in pakistan at the moment. all pakistanis are not terroists but all terroists are pakistanis

Sure, You are most welcome to join the discussion
Just two questions for you
1.Where you will fit the Al Qaeda?(if all terrorists are Pakistanis)
2.Even if fro sake of argument I agree with you all the conditions are fully applicable on Pakistan, how this takes Indian venerability out of question

Media hides Indian nuclear scandal:

What if the kidnappers have used the Indian nuclear scientist Lokanathan Mahalingam to penetrate the Indian nuclear arsenal and use the material for a future attack on Washington or New Delhi?

Maybe. But you won't hear it on CNN, BBC or the rest of the Am-Brit media.

Why? Because it exposes India's low nuclear safety standards which in turn will embarrass Washington and London, two countries that are keen to use India's cheap soldiers to fight the Anglo-Saxon wars in Afghanistan and China.

Not a single major Am-Brit media outlet covered the story of the kidnapping and murder of a man that holds the key to the Indian nuclear arsenal. There are no scare stories about Indian nukes falling in the wrong hands on either CNN or BBC.

Why? There are two funny reasons.

One is that the Am-Brit liar brigade spent much of its energy in the last two years trying to scare the world about Pakistan's nukes and how the poor Pakistanis are unable to protect them.

And suddenly this happens: a major nuclear security breach in India. And India is something that the Am-Brit liar brigade wants to protect at all costs. Mainly because India is the new slave-soldier of London and Washington and is being groomed to help in sustaining the occupation of Afghanistan and confronting China.

Also, the Americans have just broken all proliferation laws and decided that India is such a responsible nuclear power that it deserves to be given advanced nuclear technology.

Imagine if this incident had happened in Pakistan. The entire Am-Brit media would have been beating the drums of war, reminding the world how dangerous and unstable Pakistan is.

But now the entire Am-Brit enterprise is embarrassed. By the way, the Am-Brit enterprise includes biased British and American diplomats in addition to think-tank types and outright rude and dimwit journalists most of whom think they know more about your country than you do.

What if one of the 14 or so separatist movements and organizations in India kidnapped the scientist to gain access to Indian nuclear bombs?

What if the terrorists have actually gained access to an Indian nuclear facility as we speak, killed the scientist and are now waiting to carry out a major terrorist act?

What if any one of those Indian separatist groups fighting for the independence of 14 out of the 28 states that make up India have used the scientist to sell information or nuclear designs to groups or countries that end up attacking the United States? It is a scary business.

But the Am-Brit media won't cover it. Period.

NOTE: Nor would the Pakistani media, by the way. Pakistani media should have been beaming this story all over the world by now. But 80+ private news channels in the country and a giant state-owned media setup and tens of Press Ministers earning lavish benefits and still nothing to show for it.

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